A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
